Counterterrorism and Foreign Policy Changes in bin Laden Aftermath

As expected, the killing of bin Laden is still a hot topic as more details come forward.  There are many issues worth discussing including the intelligence operations of CIA and foreign policy implications for Pakistan and Middle East.


Update on previous post:


I mentioned before how I have been suspicious of the way he died.  For years, starting with Bush II, we stated publicly that we had a "dead or alive" policy for the manhunt of bin Laden. The CIA Director has stated that bin Laden would have been captured if he surrendered and was not a threat.  Killing him in cold blood is not justice - disgracing him by hauling him off to face the music of the US courts may have been the better path to justice.  I don't want to assume they had the luxury to do so, but until we get more info, we won't know for sure.  There are also concerns in Europe that US may have been "wrong to act as policeman, judge and executioner.  Based on the current details, it is feasible that this operation was conducted with a "dead or dead" policy, meaning that regardless of an option do a live-capture we were going to kill him.

CIA Ops:

We can talk about the timing - whether the operation to kill Osama bin Laden was politically motivated - and speculate on the current information we're being given about the intelligence trail.  Bin Laden's death comes 6 months before the 10 year anniversary of September 11th, which is when al Qaeda got the world's attention and Bin Laden vaulted to the most wanted man in the world.  al Qaeda had been involved in terrorist plots before such as the  bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993.  ("The Looming Tower" has great insight of the al Qaeda roadmap to 9/11 and of bin Laden himself)  

So it's been to my wonder how it could take so long for the most advanced and powerful military in the history of the world, coupled with the full breadth of a massive intelligence web with unprecedented resources, could not find one man. Now, I know that I can't fully grasp the difficulty of finding bin Laden, but honestly given the resources of the US Government and the power it yields, what should my expectations have been?  Supposedly, we almost killed him in Pakistan only a couple weeks after 9/11, and if we had killed him, then that would have probably surpassed my expectations.

Leon Panetta, the director of the CIA, has been making appearances on show after show, seemingly touting the operation as an intelligence success. The intelligence trail apparently goes back a couple years to interrogations of detainees at Gitmo.  It was first gathered there the name of bin Laden's courier - basically his connection to the outside world.  In August 2010, the CIA found the courier who had made a call on his cell phone to someone else already being wiretapped.  However, no intelligence ever surfaced, at least none presented to the public, that bin Laden was seen at the compound.  This means the President took a gamble based on the CIA guessing right.  As far as I know, there's been no published work on the CIA's incorrect guesses to bin Laden's location, so I'm really sure how to judge the success rate of intelligence on this one.

Now, I do not think this justifies any kind of torture at Gitmo.  Apparently the profile of the courier became more prominent once Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, a Gitmo detainee and mastermind of 9/11 attacks, was questioned about the role of the courier in al Qaeda.  KSM seemed to protect the courier's identity, saying the courier knew nothing and was insignificant, and the CIA interpreted this to mean the courier was important.  I think that torture is, unconditionally, a violation of human rights and is additionally viewed so by international law.  Right now, it's unclear which methods were used to get this information.  

Further implications:

This article by Michael Ware, who used to be one of my favorite journalists before he stepped out of the spotlight on IR by resigning from CNN, talks about some pretty interesting things.  The best point was: "Make no mistake, his slaying is without a doubt a heavy symbolic body blow to the al-Qa'ida organization. But when it comes to its ability to continue waging its campaign of attacks and terror that's all it promises to be. Symbolic."

The operation will also greatly affect relations with Pakistan.  A Wall Street Journal article does a good job in discussing this.  We didn't tell Pakistani officials about the operation, which is very telling about our current relationship.  The US and Pakistan have been on especially rocky terms ever since the Raymond Davis incident earlier this year.  Their President Musharraf has exclaimed that this operation was a unilateral action violating Pakistan's sovereignty.  He is correct and I suspect that if the operation had resulted in the killing of an elite mullah instead of bin Laden, we would be discussing more problems for the US in terms of international law.  Also what would have happened if Pakistani forces also moved in on the compound after having noticed the helicopters flying in just a couple minutes away from a military school?

The questions Pakistan will be facing are going to be truly embarrassing and damaging - Are you too corrupt for the US to trust you in a joint operation? Did you have knowledge of bin Laden living in Pakistan, especially in a mansion so close to Islamabad and a military academy?  How did you not pick up helicopters in your airspace for hundreds of miles (both coming and going)?  The answers are going to either stem from incompetence or complicity, and they won't ever state publicly if they were complicit.  Pakistan is in a lose-lose situation.

Thomas Friedman hopes the death of bin Ladenism comes with the death of the man himself.  I completely agree with Friedman on his points.  Although it took so long to get him, bin Laden saw his claims that self-rule is only obtained thru murderous violence and digression to puritanical Islam.  Perhaps it is a sign that the "Arab spring" or "Arab awakening" and peaceful cries for democracy happened the same year as bin Laden's killing.  "We killed bin Laden with a bullet.  Now the Arab and Muslim people have a chance to do their part -- kill bin Ladenism with a ballot".  <<He's such a good writer!!